---
title: "\"leading Indicators Point To A Contract In The Economy In Q4\""
date: "2015-01-22 17:50:01"
author: "DHA"
tags: "İstanbul"
canonical_url: "https://www.mynet.com/leading-indicators-point-to-a-contract-in-the-economy-in-q4-180101656874"
original_url: "https://www.mynet.com/leading-indicators-point-to-a-contract-in-the-economy-in-q4-180101656874"
---
# "leading Indicators Point To A Contract In The Economy In Q4"
\- Turkish economy seen to contract due to the deteriorations at leading indicators, according to a research note, released by Bahcesehir University Economic and Social Research Center (Betam), on Thursday.
The Betam note reminded the falls at the seasonally adjusted Industrial Production Index (IPI) which fell by 0.1 percent in November, against the previous month, while xport volume index fell by 3.1 percent, whereas the import volume index rose by 9.9 percent and both the IPI and the export volume index fell sharply in October.
"Our expectations for a recovery in November did not realize. 2-months consecutive decline in the IPI and weakening export demand indicate that the Turkish economy may contract in the last quarter compared to the previous quarter. Therefore, we reduce our quarter on quarter (QoQ) growth forecast from 0.2 percent to -0.2 percent, and the corresponding year on year (YoY) from 2.0 percent to 1.5 percent. Our annual growth forecast remains at 2.8 percent" said in the note.
Due to the rise in imports, current account deficit increased in November, said in the Betam note, while the monthly data had beenat 5.6 billion dollars and the 12-month rolling current account deficit increased to 47.1 billion dollars, from 45.7 billion dollar in October.
"We expect the current account deficit to GDP ratio to fall to 5.7 percent at the end of the year, and the gold-excluded current account deficit to be 5.2 percent" Betam added.
