No Coalition On Horizon Before End Of Ramadan

- The countdown for the formation of a new government will begin next week after President Tayyip Erdoğan gives the mandate to incumbent Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, but analysts suggest no government will be formed before the end of Ramadan in mid-July.

The Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) İsmet Yılmaz was elected as the new parliamentary speaker on July 1. Now, the assembly is required to establish a bureau, which will consist of 15 deputies: the speaker, four vice-speakers, seven secretaries and three other officials. All four political parties will be represented in the bureau according to the proportionate number of seats they hold in the legislature.

Only after the establishment of the bureau is Erdoğan is expected to invite AKP leader Davutoğlu to attempt to form a government, likely on July 7 or 8.

After Eid

Previously, Davutoğlu said he would conduct coalition negotiations in two rounds. In the first round, he will listen to the leaders of other parties and designate points of conciliation. Following consultations with his party, he is expected to hold a second round with parties with whom he believes he can cooperate.

In such a case, the framing of a possible coalition may be delayed until after the three-day Islamic holiday of Eid al-Fitr which will end on July 19.

There has been speculation that the country could return to the polls if Davutoğlu fails to form a government, although the prospect would be unprecedented. If an early election is called, however, it would likely be held on Nov. 22, around 90 days after the provision of the mandate to form a government.

At the same time, the Supreme Election Board (YSK) has the legal authority to schedule the date of the election at an earlier time.