Explained: How 76 Million People Were Hit By Turkey’S Worst Blackout Since 1999

- A massive power outage affected more than 76 million people in 80 out of 81 Turkish provinces for as long as nine hours on March 31 and its cause is still a matter of debate.

Here is an explanation of the crisis in four questions, including suggested.

1) What happened in Turkey on March 31?

At 10:36 a.m., a massive blackout hit Turkey. Out of the 81 Turkish provinces, electricity was not totally cut only in the eastern province of Van, which receives some of its energy from Iran. In total, more than 76 million citizens were affected in one way or another.

Described by the Energy Ministry as the worst national blackout since the 1999 Marmara earthquake, the outage wreaked havoc in daily life throughout the country with mass transit and traffic lights ceasing to work, hospitals sounding the alarm, factories halting production, mobile phone connections suffering from disruptions and people becoming stranded in elevators and traffic jams.

The total economic cost of the outage is at least $700 million.

2) When was power finally restored?

Officials started to restore power in much of the country in the afternoon. Energy Minister Taner Yıldız announced that all provinces had finally been provided with electricity by 8 p.m., which means that many Turks endured a blackout for more than nine hours.

3) Why did this happen now?

Yıldız also admitted that officials were yet to pinpoint the main source of the problem. He cut his official trip to Slovakia short late March 31 to meet his staff to discuss the issue.

Considering various official statements that carried limited technical information, concluded that the most likely explanation lies in a chain of failures:

A) The “domino effect” started when a power plant in the Aegean region suddenly stopped production, which led to a supply cut of more than 2,000 megawatts from 1 a.m. on.

B) The supply decreased even further when the Atlas thermal power plant in the southern province of Hatay stopped working at 10:02 a.m. and the Dicle hydro power plant in the southeast was shut down at 10:44 a.m.

C) Seeing the abnormal fluctuation of frequency in Turkey, the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) disconnected itself from the Turkish national grid as a precaution.

D) The severing of links with the ENTSO-E further increased the instability of Turkey’s already weakened energy grid, which led to the nationwide blackout. As such, its most likely cause was a catastrophic mismanagement of the grid in the early hours of the day.

4) How can such a large area stay without power for so long in the 21st century?

Turkey’s national energy grid is like an elaborate network of modern highways with many side roads that can be used as backup, even in the worst-case scenarios.

This fact stoked doubt in many people who refused to believe that such a catastrophic power outage could be explained merely by mismanagement.

Such disbelief leads to other possible explanations, including conspiracy theories that are still widely discussed in Turkey.

Here are some of them:

A) Cyber-attack or terrorism

Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said the possibilities of a cyber-attack and terrorism, including sabotage, had not been ruled out.

In November, Turkish hacker group RedHack hacked the website of the Turkish Electricity Conduction Company (TEİAŞ), which operates energy transmission lines.

RedHack stated that it launched the cyber-attack in memory of Berkin Elvan, the youngest victim of the Gezi Park protests who was killed by a tear-gas canister.

B) Hostage crisis

Main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu asked whether the blackout had any role in the hostage-taking crisis in an Istanbul courthouse which ended with the deaths of a prosecutor and two perpetrators, who were demanding punishment for the killers of Berkin Elvan.

There were claims on social media stressing that the perpetrators managed to enter the courthouse (below) with guns thanks to the blackout, but the energy minister said it would not be right to link the two incidents.

C) Hiding something

Critics suggested other conspiracy theories on social media, with some claiming that somebody could have “designed” the blackout to hide something, such as a critical flight record or a shadowy financial transaction, behind the chaos. Security cameras in cities were also disabled for hours.

D) Propaganda for nuclear energy

As the blackout hit the whole country, President Tayyip Erdoğan stressed “Turkey’s increasing need for nuclear energy,” while saying that the government would build a third nuclear energy plant. CHP deputy Umut Oran asked in a parliamentary question whether the blackout was linked to a nuclear energy bill which will be debated in parliament this week.

E) Structural problems

Although most of these suggestions remained unsubstantiated on April 1, another theory put forward by energy sector players is relatively more well-founded, an analyst said.

According to this theory, Turkey’s privatization of all 20 power distribution grids in 2013 led to a wild market. Privately owned natural gas power plants now opt out of production during less profitable hours or days when real-time prices are low.

As Turkey’s state-owned the Electricity Generation Company has pulled down the price to record lows since Jan. 1 by increasing production at its thermal and hydro power plants, privately owned natural gas power plants – which normally provide a more stable supply – halted operations or slowed down.

The instability that was brought by this structural change could have paved the way for massive blackouts, leaving no margin for any management error.

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